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- Search the ISFDB database for authors who used to be published by major houses in the past but have been forced to resort to self-publishing (for whatever reason). Semi-requested on r.a.sf.w Ahasuerus 17:32, 2 Oct 2006 (CDT)
- http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.sf.written/msg/475169c9fe57dd72 (22 Sep 2006) et al:
James Nicoll wrote: [snip] > I think what I am looking for is more average age at first > sale vs year of first sale, to see if it is creeping up. Oh, I see. Find all authors whose year/date of birth is known, identify their first published story/novel (should non-fiction count?), calculate the author's age when it appeared, then calculate the average age for 1926-2006, right? Should be doable (within the limits imposed by database imperfections), but give me a few hours, I need to find my slide rule first... ... Here is what the ISFDB has for 1890-2006 first fiction publications: Year,average age,median age,number of writers 1890,28,23,2 1891,28,28,1 1892,41,41,1 1893,30,27,3 1894,33,27,2 1895,33,30,6 1896,45,33,3 1897,24,27,3 1898,41,44,3 1899,30,30,1 1900,45,44,3 1902,42,42,1 1903,49,41,3 1904,27,27,5 1905,29,28,3 1906,40,40,1 1907,31,31,5 1908,31,26,4 1909,35,37,4 1910,24,26,3 1911,32,31,3 1912,33,30,4 1913,30,30,1 1914,25,24,2 1915,34,34,1 1916,31,29,4 1917,33,33,1 1918,36,41,3 1919,33,31,6 1920,37,36,6 1921,42,46,3 1922,30,19,2 1923,30,30,14 1924,31,30,11 1925,24,22,9 1926,34,33,19 1927,34,31,10 1928,31,31,15 1929,32,30,17 1930,30,29,26 1931,28,27,15 1932,25,24,10 1933,27,28,11 1934,32,23,12 1935,29,30,11 1936,29,29,7 1937,28,30,17 1938,33,27,10 1939,27,26,22 1940,28,27,14 1941,29,27,15 1942,30,28,13 1943,33,32,10 1944,35,34,8 1945,31,31,9 1946,36,35,20 1947,39,41,9 1948,35,33,11 1949,31,29,13 1950,30,30,24 1951,29,27,24 1952,33,32,32 1953,33,32,27 1954,33,31,26 1955,35,35,17 1956,33,32,16 1957,36,36,17 1958,36,35,21 1959,35,33,24 1960,35,38,9 1961,37,34,21 1962,29,25,14 1963,33,31,25 1964,34,32,23 1965,34,30,11 1966,35,32,21 1967,32,26,25 1968,29,26,19 1969,33,32,25 1970,34,34,34 1971,31,30,28 1972,33,29,24 1973,30,29,37 1974,34,31,26 1975,35,33,29 1976,33,31,31 1977,31,30,34 1978,32,31,47 1979,36,32,56 1980,36,35,49 1981,38,33,34 1982,35,33,61 1983,33,33,33 1984,38,33,57 1985,34,33,52 1986,40,37,54 1987,35,31,59 1988,37,34,56 1989,38,35,59 1990,34,31,48 1991,37,34,41 1992,34,31,36 1993,38,36,47 1994,34,33,47 1995,34,31,46 1996,40,38,32 1997,38,36,32 1998,36,34,13 1999,37,35,14 2000,35,36,7 2001,41,38,8 2002,49,50,11 2003,39,34,7 2004,47,41,17 2005,40,40,8 2006,49,49,3 This is at best imprecise since the ISFDB has useable "year of birth" data for under 2,300 authors out of 36,324. Also, the ISFDB often derives "date first published" information from reprints rather than true first editions. There are other problems with the data like duplicate author records, etc. (All "first edition" records whose authors were supposedly over 85 at the time of the publication were discarded.) Nonetheless, if the error pattern is roughly the same throughout the period, then this may be useful, although I would be extra careful with 2000-2006 numbers since year of birth data is even spottier for new authors. We will likely eventually re-check the math, rewrite the program in something more user-friendly like Perl or Python and then post it on the ISFDB Wiki. ... And here is the same data grouped by decade: Decade,average age,median age,number of writers 1890s,34,31,25 1900s,35,32,29 1910s,31,30,28 1920s,32,30,106 1930s,29,28,141 1940s,32,32,122 1950s,33,32,228 1960s,33,31,193 1970s,33,31,346 1980s,36,34,514 1990s,36,34,356 2000s,43,40,61 ... sigidu...@yahoo.com wrote: [snip] > It looks like the means and averages involve small numbers, and so are > noisy. Might a five-year weighted moving average be useful? Sure, can do: From-To,average age,median age,number of writers 1890-1895,31,28,9 1895-1900,35,31,16 1900-1905,38,32,12 1905-1910,32,32,17 1910-1915,29,30,13 1915-1920,33,32,15 1920-1925,32,31,36 1925-1930,31,30,70 1930-1935,29,27,74 1935-1940,29,29,67 1940-1945,30,29,60 1945-1950,34,33,62 1950-1955,32,31,133 1955-1960,35,34,95 1960-1965,34,32,92 1965-1970,33,29,101 1970-1975,32,30,149 1975-1980,34,31,197 1980-1985,36,34,234 1985-1990,37,34,280 1990-1995,36,33,219 1995-2000,37,37,137 2000-2005,44,39,50 2005-2010,43,42,11